by Dean Baker
co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research
. . . . Just to add enough jobs to keep the unemployment rate constant, the economy has to grow at a 2.5% rate. In the absence of some unexpected change in policy, we will not see the economy growing at this pace any time soon, which means that the unemployment rate will be rising. We can expect it to cross 10% in the not-distant future and likely to remain in double-digit levels through most of 2010.
The outrageous part of this story is that the pain is completely preventable. We know how to create jobs. It is really simple; we just have to spend money – people work for it. Unfortunately, the fiscal scolds, the people who were too lost to see the largest financial bubble in the history of the world, are telling us that we have to cut our deficits and tighten out belts.
It is probably worth noting that nearly all of the fiscal scolds earn at least six-figure salaries and many earn in the seven figures. So, we have an amazing sight here. People who earn hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of dollars a year, who have the job of designing economic policy, completely failed on the job.
This can't be emphasised enough. Missing the housing bubble was an act of astounding incompetence for an economist. This is driving the school bus into oncoming traffic; it is the kitchen cook burning down the restaurant; it is the computer technician causing a complete freeze of the company's systems.
None of these highly-paid, highly-educated people got fired or even missed a promotion. Instead, they are running around telling people earning $20,000-30,000 a year that they have to tighten their belts and accept lower social security benefits.
If politics and the media in the United States were not so corrupt, this would have been topic No1 in the election. Candidates would have been pushing plans to aggressively stimulate the economy and to throw the Wall Street crowd in jail. But a candidate who said such things would not get enough money to run a serious campaign, because you need to court the Wall Street types to pay for a campaign these days. And the media would have ignored and/or ridiculed such a candidate.
So, we have an election based largely on nonsense. People are rightly angry that their lives are being ruined by disastrous economic policy. But they have no idea where to turn. And the latest data tell us that the situation is likely to get much worse in the year ahead.
© Guardian News and Media Limited 2010
Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/10/29-4